A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
